Spanish medicine stands to turn Google Glass from spring 2014’s hottest accessory into a way to save lives. From the first surgery performed entirely through the eye of the Glass to dozens of mobile applications, Spanish Glass-based innovation is poised to change the way doctors work and communicate.
This June, Dr. Pedro Guillen became the first to operate wearing Google Glass. The chief of trauma at the Clínica CEMTRO de Madrid performed a highly complex chondrocyte implantation, to form a membrane in the damaged knee of a 49-year-old. The surgery, which requires harvesting cartilage from another part of the leg and which Guillen pioneered in 1996, was streamed in real time to 150 doctors around the world, all sharing the same view as him.
The purpose of Google Glass — a lightweight pair of glasses equipped with a camera, GPS, bluetooth, microphone and viewfinder — is to connect with smartphones to allow the wearer to search and access information online and to use an eye-level camera, all hands-free. For Guillen, Google Glass gives the phrase “doctors without borders” a whole new meaning.
He described Google Glass as “la universidad de hospitales de todos los países del mundo” — the university for all medical schools around the world. “You see my hands, how I do the surgery,” he said, in awe of the possibilities of Google Glass in his field. In this first Glass surgery, Guillen was accompanied by Dr. Homero Rivas, director of innovative surgery at Stanford University’s School of Medicine and an expert in telemedicine, who advised the doctor throughout the course of the surgery, all from his packed classroom on the California campus. “The universities can interact with me,” Guillen said, as Rivas could also pass on questions from his students, many of whom were witnessing surgery from a firsthand perspective for the first time.
Guillen seems simply thrilled to be able to perform surgery with Google Glass, not just for the teaching opportunities, but for his own sake, too. He enthusiastically talked about being able to use Glass’s miniature split screen to look at the arthroscopic view of the knee he’s working on and a video refreshing how to properly separate and repair the joint, all at the same time, without taking his eyes off the operating table.
“In one minute, I can Google ‘anatomy of the knee,’ for example,” and find and watch a video he already prepared, or he could reference his own chondrocyte implantation from the exact same view that he performed it. If something were to go wrong, like during a live sports game, he could even rewind the tape to review the surgery then and indoor Tracking. Not only does he have the information the moment he needs it and doesn’t need to distract himself to discover it, but also keeping difficult-to-sterilize computers out of the O.R. helps prevent infections.
Guillen, who, like all surgeons, is preoccupied with the comfort and ease of use of anything added to their routine, assured us that the glasses — which he said are “at the perfect height” over his own — were not uncomfortable, and, by the time he was in surgery, he didn’t notice them at all.
Of course, like all smartphones and tablets, Google Glass is nothing without the apps. Murcia-based mobile app company Droiders has an entire department called Glassters, developing everything from augmented realities to assistance for those with disabilities. On the medical side, they are working on developing apps that enable ophthalmologists to examine eyes directly and to compare with results of Google’s “Search by Image.” There’s also talk of an app that would allow any doctor or nurse to take a pulse rate without having to touch a patient. Guillen’s surgery was broadcast live through the Glassters Streamer.
Guillen is ready to perform his next Google Glass surgery on September 17, where he will be able to show from his perspective another operation that he invented — wireless arthroscopic surgery, which was first performed in 2007. Guillen and his team at the Clínica CEMTRO de Madrid invented the Wireless Arthroscopic Device, which is a tiny camera inserted through a small incision used to examine and sometimes repair a damaged joint. Since the joint isn’t fully opened, recovery time is much shorter.
He said that his clinic is “probably the top in the world” for such surgeries and that “all of my patients are out-patient,” including former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar, footballer Fernando “El Ni?o” Torres, and several rhythmic gymnasts, an Olympic sport that Spain typically medals in.
"Later that evening I checked my Bank of America account online and noted not only had I been charged for my purchase, but there was an additional charge for $213.96 from Verizon," said Guinan, 63. "Interestingly, the charge had been made an hour-and-a-half later, after the first — and correct — Verizon charge."He said he immediately called Bank of America to report the unauthorized charge. He said he also talked to Verizon, which acknowledged there was a problem, and it said it would work with the bank to correct it.
"The money was placed back in my account and all was well until Feb. 15, 2013, when the $213.96 was debited from my account," he said, noting he received a letter from the bank on the same day."They said after investigating, they found that there was a signature on the receipt and therefore it was an ‘authorized purchase," he said.Knowing that wasn’t the case, Guinan called Bank of America.
"After explaining and discussing the situation, the Bank of America representative determined that the claim was in the wrong category and it would be placed in the correct category — fraud — and the claim would be reopened," he said.Guinan said he knew it could take several months, so he waited it out.
On July 26, Giunan said, he called Bank of America again."They said that the charge was authorized by a signature and therefore was a legitimate charge," he said. "I stated that it clearly was not mine, but that didn’t seem to matter. The Bank of America representative said to go back to Verizon."
So he did, visiting the Union store during the first week of August.Guinan said the manager was able to bring up Guinan’s account, confirming he purchased the phone case for $24.06. He said the manager was also able to view the $213.96 charge, and had access to the buyer’s name, address and phone number.
"I received a copy of the Verizon receipt for the $213.96 purchase," he said. "Not only was the signature clearly not mine, but the phone number listed with the account was in no way connected to me."
Read the full products at http://www.ecived.com/en/!
2013年9月2日星期一
2013年8月28日星期三
Hacker scenes are all the same
Look, I get it. When the hero inevitably runs into a dead end, I’m willing to suspend my disbelief and accept that a fictional hacker can solve everything. But it’s not 1995 anymore; computers are not relatively new inventions, so over time, these hacker scenes have only become more tedious than revolutionary.
Let’s start with the latest hacking-as-a-plot-point offender: this summer’s Elysium. Toward the end, our hero Max is forced to carry critical data to the “core” of the wealthy outpost in space. Who does he bring along? A hacker named Spider who just happens to know exactly how to use the data stored in Max’s head to—what else?—save the world.And Spider does what every movie hacker does: He types a thousand lines of “code,” steps back and clasps his sweaty hands together, praying that what he just keyboard-smashed will work.
I didn’t always find “hacking” scenes so annoying to watch. When Lex tries to reboot the security system in Jurassic Park, I remember being on the edge of my seat, nervously gritting my teeth while she navigated the files. I used to sweat alongside Livingston Dell in Ocean’s Eleven and its sequels, as he used one shortcut after the next to help his fellow thieves access casino vaults.
Not anymore. Now, whenever a character takes a seat in front of a computer, cracks his knuckles and starts typing, I’m bored out of my mind, because every hacking scene ends up looking the same. Fingers fly over the keys, sweat drips from the hacker’s eyebrows and the monitor displays some fancy graphic to convince you that, yes, this hacker is doing something. And when screenwriters don’t know what else to do, they have the characters ramble off gibberish to distracts the viewer. Even Hugh Jackman can’t make scenes like those coherent.
And then there’s the annoying trope of timing. A buffering video is frustrating enough; why must films involving hackers have them staring at a bar slowly go from 98 percent… to 99 percent… to 100?It’s become a weak ploy to get the audience invested in the drama and Indoor Positioning System, simply put, no fun to watch. Yes, it can play up the tension, but if most of the film already includes hacking as a plot device, it slows down the pace.
It’s not just the portrayal of these scenes, but the portrayal of the hackers as well. Most hackers—Matt Farrell in Live Free or Die Hard, the aforementioned Dell in Ocean’s Eleven, Skip Tyler in White House Down—are shown to be awkward, stuttering, usually bespectacled nerds.
It’s been done so often that every hacker, no matter what weird characteristic they’re given, comes off as one-note, socially awkward outcasts. And no, not every film is meant to delve into extensive character backgrounds, but enough with this stereotype already. Hackers can be cool, too. Smallville’s Chloe was my idol, and another Chloe is set to play Skye, a hacker on Agents of SHIELD, who promises she won’t be one of the “weird outcasts who only know how to deal with electronics.” Even though they’re still victim to hacking scenes, both Girl with the Dragon Tattoo adaptations characterize Lisbeth Salander as more than just a hacker.
Ultimately, it’s all about hacking as a skill, not as the sole characteristic or a vague plot device. Break a firewall and the MI6 headquarters blow up? Type some gibberish and all of America goes in lockdown? You’re better than that, screenwriters. Before you dive into making movies about Wikileaks or the NSA, remember: It’s not about whether or not the hacking is realistic, it’s about using that hacking effectively in your plot.
Despite the fact that he was making his presentation to an assembly of some of the world's most accomplished semiconductor engineers, Parviz stayed away from technical matters, and didn't reveal anything about Glass beyond what is already known. Instead, he focused on its possible impact on, well, everyone.
Parviz characterized Glass as the next step in communication. At the dawn of history, he said, "Basically what we did was we talked to each other, so we had to be in physical proximity of each other, carry our emotions through speech, and communicate – that was the only thing we could do."
Next came the invention of writing, which enabled sending messages long distance – an improvement, but slow. Enter the telegraph, he said, which was able to send text messages quickly over long distance. Then came the telephone – fast, long-distance, without the requirement for conversion into text, with the ability for instant back-and-forth conversation, but tethered.
The digital age brought email – essential a private, mobile telegraph – and untethered, aka mobile, phones. All well and good, but from Parviz's point of view, "What we haven't really had actually, to this day, genuinely, has been a device, a technology that has been engineered from the get-go for visual communication from person to person – and that's one of the main drivers of Google Glass."
Sure, he said, you can take photos with your smartphone and email them to a friend, he said, "But that is sort of an extension of taking a picture and putting it in paper mail and mailing it to someone else."
A camera-equipped computing device that, as Parviz put it, "lives on your head," will enable you to immediately live-stream what you're looking at to one or many viewers who can "experience [your] life at this very moment" while leaving your hands free. "This has a camera that sees the world through my eyes – and that's unique to this form factor," he said. "We don't have other electronic devices that can live with me as I live my life rather than be an intrusion into my life."
With the world of human interaction upgraded from mere speech to "see the world as I'm seeing it when I'm seeing it" pictorial communication, Parviz moved on to how humans have looked for information over the years, how they have sought out answers to questions they might have had. "A few thousand years ago," he said, "basically you were out of luck" if you didn't know someone who could answer your question.
Over time, however, as mankind became urbanized, you could maybe track down your local polymath would could answer your questions – but whether that smart person was actually correct, you had no way of knowing. After that came writing, scrolls, and books, and you could look things up in the library – a big improvement that ruled the roost for centuries.
Let’s start with the latest hacking-as-a-plot-point offender: this summer’s Elysium. Toward the end, our hero Max is forced to carry critical data to the “core” of the wealthy outpost in space. Who does he bring along? A hacker named Spider who just happens to know exactly how to use the data stored in Max’s head to—what else?—save the world.And Spider does what every movie hacker does: He types a thousand lines of “code,” steps back and clasps his sweaty hands together, praying that what he just keyboard-smashed will work.
I didn’t always find “hacking” scenes so annoying to watch. When Lex tries to reboot the security system in Jurassic Park, I remember being on the edge of my seat, nervously gritting my teeth while she navigated the files. I used to sweat alongside Livingston Dell in Ocean’s Eleven and its sequels, as he used one shortcut after the next to help his fellow thieves access casino vaults.
Not anymore. Now, whenever a character takes a seat in front of a computer, cracks his knuckles and starts typing, I’m bored out of my mind, because every hacking scene ends up looking the same. Fingers fly over the keys, sweat drips from the hacker’s eyebrows and the monitor displays some fancy graphic to convince you that, yes, this hacker is doing something. And when screenwriters don’t know what else to do, they have the characters ramble off gibberish to distracts the viewer. Even Hugh Jackman can’t make scenes like those coherent.
And then there’s the annoying trope of timing. A buffering video is frustrating enough; why must films involving hackers have them staring at a bar slowly go from 98 percent… to 99 percent… to 100?It’s become a weak ploy to get the audience invested in the drama and Indoor Positioning System, simply put, no fun to watch. Yes, it can play up the tension, but if most of the film already includes hacking as a plot device, it slows down the pace.
It’s not just the portrayal of these scenes, but the portrayal of the hackers as well. Most hackers—Matt Farrell in Live Free or Die Hard, the aforementioned Dell in Ocean’s Eleven, Skip Tyler in White House Down—are shown to be awkward, stuttering, usually bespectacled nerds.
It’s been done so often that every hacker, no matter what weird characteristic they’re given, comes off as one-note, socially awkward outcasts. And no, not every film is meant to delve into extensive character backgrounds, but enough with this stereotype already. Hackers can be cool, too. Smallville’s Chloe was my idol, and another Chloe is set to play Skye, a hacker on Agents of SHIELD, who promises she won’t be one of the “weird outcasts who only know how to deal with electronics.” Even though they’re still victim to hacking scenes, both Girl with the Dragon Tattoo adaptations characterize Lisbeth Salander as more than just a hacker.
Ultimately, it’s all about hacking as a skill, not as the sole characteristic or a vague plot device. Break a firewall and the MI6 headquarters blow up? Type some gibberish and all of America goes in lockdown? You’re better than that, screenwriters. Before you dive into making movies about Wikileaks or the NSA, remember: It’s not about whether or not the hacking is realistic, it’s about using that hacking effectively in your plot.
Despite the fact that he was making his presentation to an assembly of some of the world's most accomplished semiconductor engineers, Parviz stayed away from technical matters, and didn't reveal anything about Glass beyond what is already known. Instead, he focused on its possible impact on, well, everyone.
Parviz characterized Glass as the next step in communication. At the dawn of history, he said, "Basically what we did was we talked to each other, so we had to be in physical proximity of each other, carry our emotions through speech, and communicate – that was the only thing we could do."
Next came the invention of writing, which enabled sending messages long distance – an improvement, but slow. Enter the telegraph, he said, which was able to send text messages quickly over long distance. Then came the telephone – fast, long-distance, without the requirement for conversion into text, with the ability for instant back-and-forth conversation, but tethered.
The digital age brought email – essential a private, mobile telegraph – and untethered, aka mobile, phones. All well and good, but from Parviz's point of view, "What we haven't really had actually, to this day, genuinely, has been a device, a technology that has been engineered from the get-go for visual communication from person to person – and that's one of the main drivers of Google Glass."
Sure, he said, you can take photos with your smartphone and email them to a friend, he said, "But that is sort of an extension of taking a picture and putting it in paper mail and mailing it to someone else."
A camera-equipped computing device that, as Parviz put it, "lives on your head," will enable you to immediately live-stream what you're looking at to one or many viewers who can "experience [your] life at this very moment" while leaving your hands free. "This has a camera that sees the world through my eyes – and that's unique to this form factor," he said. "We don't have other electronic devices that can live with me as I live my life rather than be an intrusion into my life."
With the world of human interaction upgraded from mere speech to "see the world as I'm seeing it when I'm seeing it" pictorial communication, Parviz moved on to how humans have looked for information over the years, how they have sought out answers to questions they might have had. "A few thousand years ago," he said, "basically you were out of luck" if you didn't know someone who could answer your question.
Over time, however, as mankind became urbanized, you could maybe track down your local polymath would could answer your questions – but whether that smart person was actually correct, you had no way of knowing. After that came writing, scrolls, and books, and you could look things up in the library – a big improvement that ruled the roost for centuries.
2013年7月24日星期三
Free Macbook or iPad in Every Student’s Hands
Within three weeks starting on Sept. 16, every student at Flagler Palm Coast High School and Matanzas High School will have the latest-generation Macbook Air, free, on what amounts to a permanent loan from the school district. The district also plans to have an iPad for every fifth and sixth grader this year and next, then broadening that to fourth through ninth grades the following year.
The $814,000 Macbook initiative is part of a four-year, $3.2 million contract between the school district and Apple Corp. that by the 2017-18 school year will land either an individualized iPad or a Macbook in the hands of every single Flagler County student from grade four and up, while every student from kindergarten through third grade will have access to individualized iPads or Macbooks at school. That’s itself part of a five-year, $20.5 million plan to improve education technology in the district.
In essence, the district will be spending $4 million a year over the next five years on technology, with $6 million of that in salaries and the rest in actual computers, smart classroom set-ups, computer labs, networking, software, and so on. The initiative is paid for through sales tax dollars. (See the plan ion a detailed breakdown below.)A year ago, voters approved by a large margin the renewal of a half-penny sales tax supplement in Flagler County to continue funding technology improvements in schools.
The school board approved the four-year Apple lease plan unanimously Tuesday, with only a few reservations about the scope of the program and the absence of formalized policies and regulations that will frame its development. Those policies and procedures are on the way.“I know we’re in a process of moving quickly, but proceeding with the purchase before I have policies in place with the regulations is problematic for me,” Board Chairman Andy Dance said. “But we’ve had a discussion, we have already qualified a lot of questions that parents have had about the liability issues and some of the questions about using them and some of the restrictions and rtls.” He wants workshops to define the policies and involve the public at every step. “We’re on the right path, definitely want to push forward and have the policies ready for review as soon as possible, and have some public input on those.”
Board member Colleen Conklin was very concerned about the immense additional workload on district technology staff, once thousands of additional computers and iPads are in students’ hands. FPC has its own student help desk already, making technical support built-in there. Otherwise, students will have access to an online help desk and will have to seek out technical help at their respective school.
Ryan Deising, the district’s technology director, who’s spearheading the initiative, is not concerned, saying the technology department already provides support for the users of some 9,000 devices, not including printing and smart-classroom devices.“To add this amount I think is something we can accomplish,” Deising said. “One of the benefits I think to this is that having these devices in a one-to-one scenario lends themselves to be maintained better. Typically what we run into issues for support is when we don’t get timely notifications sometimes of issues because we’ve put extra computers in a cart, so we’ll get to the point where there’ll be two or three machines that we’re having an issue within a cart. What we’re hoping with his is we’ll get more of a timely response, more timely information as far as when we have issues with those devices.”
Until now, the district has made computers and iPads available to students mostly by stacking them up in carts and distributing the devices for specific uses, or day-long uses, then collecting them at day’s end. Except for the youngest students, the district is moving away from the cart system.Deising outlined what he and the board perceived as the benefits of this latest Macbook initiative, starting with the basics: the computer that will be placed in students’ hands is the latest generation of Macbooks, issued in June, with a battery life of upwards of eight hours, and a price of $800.
Any devices no longer necessary in high schools will be redistributed in the middle and elementary schools.“The rationale behind the decision to move in this direction,” Deising said, “is we’re in a position to make a very positive impact on digital learning. This scenario provides students with devices that are both able for the students and teachers are ready to go with. It also allows students to create digital content in a familiar environment,” meaning the Apple systems. “We have a lot of investment in time and energy as far as on the training side of the Apple tools.”
The district will begin distributing the Macbook Airs to high school students starting on Sept. 16. For the following three weeks, technology staff will schedule open houses at Flagler Palm Coast and Matanzas high schools for students and parents to pick up the devices and see them set up through an orientation.And yes, there will be paperwork, because parents will have to sign something of a contract, or an agreement, that covers liability and security issues. For starters, there will be a $50 technology insurance fee. That’s in case of theft or breakage. Parents can opt out. But if they do, they’ll be entirely responsible for the cost of repairs, or the cost of the machine, if it’s stolen or lost. Parents who can’t afford the $50 fee can have it waived for hardship.
If parents don’t agree to any of the district’s terms, students will be granted day use of Macbooks, allowing a student to check out a Mac every morning, and turn it back in at the end of the school day.But there will also be costs associated with serious damage and other forms of abuse of the machines. A first offense will require a $100 co-pay. A second offense will trigger a $150 co-pay. If there are further breakages or abuses, the student will be required to be a day user of the computer.
The district hasn’t clarified whether the offenses add up for the duration of the student’s possession of the computer, or whether the clock goes back to zero at the beginning of a new school year—or who will have possession of the computers over the summer. Nor is it clear how the district will ensure that families that move out of county and out of state—a chronic issue throughout the year—can be tracked down if they still have possession of the computer.
Read the full products at http://www.ecived.com/en/.
The $814,000 Macbook initiative is part of a four-year, $3.2 million contract between the school district and Apple Corp. that by the 2017-18 school year will land either an individualized iPad or a Macbook in the hands of every single Flagler County student from grade four and up, while every student from kindergarten through third grade will have access to individualized iPads or Macbooks at school. That’s itself part of a five-year, $20.5 million plan to improve education technology in the district.
In essence, the district will be spending $4 million a year over the next five years on technology, with $6 million of that in salaries and the rest in actual computers, smart classroom set-ups, computer labs, networking, software, and so on. The initiative is paid for through sales tax dollars. (See the plan ion a detailed breakdown below.)A year ago, voters approved by a large margin the renewal of a half-penny sales tax supplement in Flagler County to continue funding technology improvements in schools.
The school board approved the four-year Apple lease plan unanimously Tuesday, with only a few reservations about the scope of the program and the absence of formalized policies and regulations that will frame its development. Those policies and procedures are on the way.“I know we’re in a process of moving quickly, but proceeding with the purchase before I have policies in place with the regulations is problematic for me,” Board Chairman Andy Dance said. “But we’ve had a discussion, we have already qualified a lot of questions that parents have had about the liability issues and some of the questions about using them and some of the restrictions and rtls.” He wants workshops to define the policies and involve the public at every step. “We’re on the right path, definitely want to push forward and have the policies ready for review as soon as possible, and have some public input on those.”
Board member Colleen Conklin was very concerned about the immense additional workload on district technology staff, once thousands of additional computers and iPads are in students’ hands. FPC has its own student help desk already, making technical support built-in there. Otherwise, students will have access to an online help desk and will have to seek out technical help at their respective school.
Ryan Deising, the district’s technology director, who’s spearheading the initiative, is not concerned, saying the technology department already provides support for the users of some 9,000 devices, not including printing and smart-classroom devices.“To add this amount I think is something we can accomplish,” Deising said. “One of the benefits I think to this is that having these devices in a one-to-one scenario lends themselves to be maintained better. Typically what we run into issues for support is when we don’t get timely notifications sometimes of issues because we’ve put extra computers in a cart, so we’ll get to the point where there’ll be two or three machines that we’re having an issue within a cart. What we’re hoping with his is we’ll get more of a timely response, more timely information as far as when we have issues with those devices.”
Until now, the district has made computers and iPads available to students mostly by stacking them up in carts and distributing the devices for specific uses, or day-long uses, then collecting them at day’s end. Except for the youngest students, the district is moving away from the cart system.Deising outlined what he and the board perceived as the benefits of this latest Macbook initiative, starting with the basics: the computer that will be placed in students’ hands is the latest generation of Macbooks, issued in June, with a battery life of upwards of eight hours, and a price of $800.
Any devices no longer necessary in high schools will be redistributed in the middle and elementary schools.“The rationale behind the decision to move in this direction,” Deising said, “is we’re in a position to make a very positive impact on digital learning. This scenario provides students with devices that are both able for the students and teachers are ready to go with. It also allows students to create digital content in a familiar environment,” meaning the Apple systems. “We have a lot of investment in time and energy as far as on the training side of the Apple tools.”
The district will begin distributing the Macbook Airs to high school students starting on Sept. 16. For the following three weeks, technology staff will schedule open houses at Flagler Palm Coast and Matanzas high schools for students and parents to pick up the devices and see them set up through an orientation.And yes, there will be paperwork, because parents will have to sign something of a contract, or an agreement, that covers liability and security issues. For starters, there will be a $50 technology insurance fee. That’s in case of theft or breakage. Parents can opt out. But if they do, they’ll be entirely responsible for the cost of repairs, or the cost of the machine, if it’s stolen or lost. Parents who can’t afford the $50 fee can have it waived for hardship.
If parents don’t agree to any of the district’s terms, students will be granted day use of Macbooks, allowing a student to check out a Mac every morning, and turn it back in at the end of the school day.But there will also be costs associated with serious damage and other forms of abuse of the machines. A first offense will require a $100 co-pay. A second offense will trigger a $150 co-pay. If there are further breakages or abuses, the student will be required to be a day user of the computer.
The district hasn’t clarified whether the offenses add up for the duration of the student’s possession of the computer, or whether the clock goes back to zero at the beginning of a new school year—or who will have possession of the computers over the summer. Nor is it clear how the district will ensure that families that move out of county and out of state—a chronic issue throughout the year—can be tracked down if they still have possession of the computer.
Read the full products at http://www.ecived.com/en/.
2013年6月16日星期日
How a gold fetish is killing India's economy
Investors are fleeing the yellow metal, whose price has slumped more than 10 percent over the past three months.But Indians are so gold crazy they're sacrificing their currency and their country’s economy in the bargain.
By buying up billions of dollars worth of foreign gold, they are sending Indian cash overseas, disrupting the balance money entering and leaving the country, and thus driving down the value of the rupee. That in turn makes key imports *more costly*, and makes it harder for business to pay international loans.
"If for one year there are no gold imports, it will change the current account deficit story of the country," said Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Thursday. “Indians think they are buying gold in rupees. Actually they are buying gold in dollars.”
India is the world's biggest gold importer, soaking up a third of the world's supply every year. Gold is the country's biggest foreign purchase after oil. The impact? The current account deficit (the net outflow of money) is 5.4 percent of GDP, about double what economists recommend.
"I once again appeal to everyone to resist the temptation to buy gold,” Chidambaram said. “This will show positive impact on every aspect of the Indian economy.”
While India's current account deficit is too high, the real concern is whether enough money is flowing into the country to make up the difference, Bibek Debroy, an economist affiliated with the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, told GlobalPost. And there things get extra tricky.
“The worry for the government really is that whatever capital inflows we have are in the nature of portfolio investments” — such as stock purchases — “which tend to come and go,” Debroy said. In contrast, direct investment in factories and in other ventures tend to carry long-term benefits, and the capital remains regardless of short term market fluctuations.
“So we should really be asking, ‘Why aren't investments coming in?’ — rather than picking on people who are buying gold.”
According to Chidambaram, India's gold imports fell from an average of $135 million in the first half of May to $36 million in the second half of the month, but he neglected to mention the reason: This year the Akshaya Tritiya festival, the second-biggest holiday for buying gold, fell on May 13.
The post-holiday lull gave some relief to the central bank, which on Tuesday was forced to intervene in currency markets to bring the rupee back from its lowest level against the dollar in history (58.98 rupees to the greenback).
But the rupee resumed its fall after the finance minister's speech Thursday. And the dip in gold demand is likely only to be temporary — because for Indians gold is more than an investment.
Gold is synonymous with savings and security for many of India’s 1.24 billion people, for a variety of reasons. Only about 36,000 of India's 650,000 villages have a bank branch. And minimum balances and other requirements mean that house maids, security guards and construction workers hold much of their assets in gold coins and jewelry as a hedge against bad times, when they can be sold or used as a collateral with the local moneylender.
Moreover, the metal's cultural importance makes it essential for weddings and various other ceremonies. Even bankers and lawyers still think of buying gold jewelry as a foolproof financial strategy. And with both the capital markets and real estate losing luster lately, India's wealthy have emerged as a new class of gold buyers.
“Traditionally, there's always been a demand for gold. But what has added to that in the last four years or so is a different kind of demand. That is a demand for gold that I would call investment,” said Debroy.
Consider this: Even though gold prices have plunged from more than $1800 in November to around $1400 an ounce last month, the World Gold Council has forecast that India's gold imports for April-June would amount to almost half the total imported in 2012.
Bad investment? Probably. Experts say a rise in gold prices is unlikely without a big slump in the US stock market or in the value of the dollar, neither of which seems likely. And even long term, gold prices tend to skyrocket and plunge because there's paltry “real” business demand for the yellow metal, with investors who buy gold and sit on it as an investment accounting for more than half of the volume purchased every year.
For the Indian economy, however, the gold obsession is worse than a poor investment. Unlike buying stocks or bonds, parking money in gold slows, rather than stimulates, economic growth by sucking cash out of the system.
Meanwhile, a growing trade deficit forces the country to devalue its currency – for India, about 10 percent a year for the past two decades. Those plunging values scare people out of rupees, and foreign funds out of India. That, in turn, means less investment and slower growth, and thus a further weakening rupee.Read the full story at www.ecived.com/en!
By buying up billions of dollars worth of foreign gold, they are sending Indian cash overseas, disrupting the balance money entering and leaving the country, and thus driving down the value of the rupee. That in turn makes key imports *more costly*, and makes it harder for business to pay international loans.
"If for one year there are no gold imports, it will change the current account deficit story of the country," said Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Thursday. “Indians think they are buying gold in rupees. Actually they are buying gold in dollars.”
India is the world's biggest gold importer, soaking up a third of the world's supply every year. Gold is the country's biggest foreign purchase after oil. The impact? The current account deficit (the net outflow of money) is 5.4 percent of GDP, about double what economists recommend.
"I once again appeal to everyone to resist the temptation to buy gold,” Chidambaram said. “This will show positive impact on every aspect of the Indian economy.”
While India's current account deficit is too high, the real concern is whether enough money is flowing into the country to make up the difference, Bibek Debroy, an economist affiliated with the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, told GlobalPost. And there things get extra tricky.
“The worry for the government really is that whatever capital inflows we have are in the nature of portfolio investments” — such as stock purchases — “which tend to come and go,” Debroy said. In contrast, direct investment in factories and in other ventures tend to carry long-term benefits, and the capital remains regardless of short term market fluctuations.
“So we should really be asking, ‘Why aren't investments coming in?’ — rather than picking on people who are buying gold.”
According to Chidambaram, India's gold imports fell from an average of $135 million in the first half of May to $36 million in the second half of the month, but he neglected to mention the reason: This year the Akshaya Tritiya festival, the second-biggest holiday for buying gold, fell on May 13.
The post-holiday lull gave some relief to the central bank, which on Tuesday was forced to intervene in currency markets to bring the rupee back from its lowest level against the dollar in history (58.98 rupees to the greenback).
But the rupee resumed its fall after the finance minister's speech Thursday. And the dip in gold demand is likely only to be temporary — because for Indians gold is more than an investment.
Gold is synonymous with savings and security for many of India’s 1.24 billion people, for a variety of reasons. Only about 36,000 of India's 650,000 villages have a bank branch. And minimum balances and other requirements mean that house maids, security guards and construction workers hold much of their assets in gold coins and jewelry as a hedge against bad times, when they can be sold or used as a collateral with the local moneylender.
Moreover, the metal's cultural importance makes it essential for weddings and various other ceremonies. Even bankers and lawyers still think of buying gold jewelry as a foolproof financial strategy. And with both the capital markets and real estate losing luster lately, India's wealthy have emerged as a new class of gold buyers.
“Traditionally, there's always been a demand for gold. But what has added to that in the last four years or so is a different kind of demand. That is a demand for gold that I would call investment,” said Debroy.
Consider this: Even though gold prices have plunged from more than $1800 in November to around $1400 an ounce last month, the World Gold Council has forecast that India's gold imports for April-June would amount to almost half the total imported in 2012.
Bad investment? Probably. Experts say a rise in gold prices is unlikely without a big slump in the US stock market or in the value of the dollar, neither of which seems likely. And even long term, gold prices tend to skyrocket and plunge because there's paltry “real” business demand for the yellow metal, with investors who buy gold and sit on it as an investment accounting for more than half of the volume purchased every year.
For the Indian economy, however, the gold obsession is worse than a poor investment. Unlike buying stocks or bonds, parking money in gold slows, rather than stimulates, economic growth by sucking cash out of the system.
Meanwhile, a growing trade deficit forces the country to devalue its currency – for India, about 10 percent a year for the past two decades. Those plunging values scare people out of rupees, and foreign funds out of India. That, in turn, means less investment and slower growth, and thus a further weakening rupee.Read the full story at www.ecived.com/en!
2013年6月8日星期六
Fragile peace in San Salvador as youth gangs
The main square in Ilopango is bustling with noise as the sun disappears behind the distant mountains. The queue for papusas, tortillas filled with beans and melted cheese, is growing as hymns ring out from the evangelical church.
Across the square two girls – cousins aged five and six – persuade me to join in their boisterous game of football, oblivious to the young couples trying to enjoy a quiet moment. Turn the clock back a year, and this typical San Salvador twilight scene could not have existed.
The town was a battleground for the country's two biggest street gangs, Mara Salvatrucha 13 (MS-13) and Calle 18, with gang graffiti marking territory street by street. Both gangs used the square to display dead bodies, so everybody knew who was responsible. This public show of violence instilled deep fear among the street vendors, shop owners and taxi drivers, who were all forced to pay into the gangs' extortion rackets. No one came out after dark. El Salvador was ranked the world's second most murderous country in 2011.
Then, in March 2012, the gangs unexpectedly announced a truce. Leaders from both sides promised to stop the killings in return for more humane prison conditions and help in reintegrating members back into society. The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) government, former leftwing guerrillas, risked the wrath of the gang-hating electorate by negotiating for peace. Within weeks the murder rate fell from 14 a day to five or six. Ilopango was one of the most dangerous municipalities of San Salvador, with 117 murders in 2011. The killings fell dramatically to 62 in 2012, and improbably it became the first area declared free from gang violence.
Marvin Gonzales, 29, a spokesman of MS-13 in Ilopango, is one of 30 gang members operating a chicken farm – a showcase truce project attracting international attention for the city's mayor. He tells me about choosing MS-13 over his family at the age of 12; this farm is his first legal job. "I served 10 years in hell for killing a boy whose name I didn't even know over territory. When my niece's father was sentenced to 136 years for triple murder, I knew this had to stop. I lost six friends to Indoor Positioning System, I can't do it any more."
It's a steep, sweltering descent from the road to the farm, which overlooks El Salvador's largest lake. Though once a chicken farm, for the past 16 years this land served as a rubbish dump. Alex Renderos, 26, screws up his face as he recalls the mountain of stinking rubbish. "That's all we did for three months, it was disgusting, the insects were huge."
He was jailed for three years when his girlfriend was pregnant for possession of a 9mm gun. "I didn't see my daughter until she was three – which hurt here," he says, patting his heart. "That's why we are motivated to make this work."
Grinning, Gonzales hands me an envelope he's been carrying in his back pocket. His girlfriend is pregnant and he wants to show off the 12-week ultrasound scan. "I spent the best years of my life in jail, 100 men in a 20-by-15-metre room. Life for us pandilleros [gang members] is short: we end up in jail or dead. I don't want that for my child."
A couple of days later we drive to the flagship Calle 18 project – a tiny bakery down a side street that is covered in gang graffiti. The ovens are full and young boys are speeding off on bicycles loaded with bread rolls, honking their horns to attract customers. The senior gangsters aren't here, delayed at another meeting at the mayor's office with government officials, MS-13, and Father To?o Rodríguez – a controversial priest who recently joined the negotiating table.
Javier García, 22, has been working in the bakery for four months, earning $5 a day. He was kicked out of school at 14 and, like many teenagers, saw the gang as a laugh, better than being at home. "When I'm in the bakery I am not on the streets, so that's good for everyone," he says while lifting from the oven trays of pan francés – salty bread rolls that Salvadoreans eat with breakfast and dinner. "Maybe I will want to leave one day, but right now I still feel very strongly in my heart for my gang, we look after each other like the three musketeers."
García says his friend Kevin was killed by MS-13 only three months ago after stepping into their territory while selling avocados. "I can never imagine MS-13 as my friends, never. If I saw one now, I would hit him, for Kevin. For this truce to work, we have to stay apart."
The mayor, Salvador Ruano, came to power in Ilopango last May, after a narrow win for the rightwing National Republican Alliance, known by the acronym Arena in Spanish, in a FMLN stronghold – with the party punished for years of infighting by a record low turnout. Despite his squat physique, Ruano cuts an imposing figure as he bellows at me as if addressing a large crowd. "I promised both groups I would help them earn an honest living, as long as they kept their side of the compromise, and now I have them around the same table talking peace and people are definitely safer."
"The problem of violence here is decades old and there is no magic formula, no manual, no perfect solution… I cannot say Ilopango is free from violence, but after one year in power we are in transition from violence to peace. Those who criticise maybe have something to lose from peace."
Ilopango's square has a bloody past. During the 12-year civil war, it was from the airbase around the corner that the feared Atlacatl Battalion, a US–trained special forces unit, was sent in helicopters to massacre civilians in "red zones" such as El Mozote and El Calabozo.
Members of the urban guerrilla movement were captured and tortured and bodies were dumped in the square, says David Munguía, the director of FMLN Ilopango, whose office is adorned with pictures of the "martyrs".
"After one year, all we have is a bakery and a chicken farm that employs a handful of people, this cannot sustain [the] truce," Munguía says. "There are no social programmes or prevention projects and, OK, there are fewer murders, but delinquency, extortion and kidnappings are up.
The fragile truce has powerful religious and political opponents. Norman Quijano, the mayor of San Salvador and Arena's 2014 presidential candidate, is pledging to get tough on crime and stop negotiating with criminals.
El Salvador has the most overcrowded prisons in the world, with 26,000 inmates kettled in prisons built for 8,400 – a direct result of the 2004 Arena Mano Duro or iron-fist policy. But Quijano's claims that murderous gangsters are now living it up with plasma-screen TVs hits a nerve, and his popularity is growing. One taxi driver tells me that he still pays $8 a week to Calle 18 – a quarter of what he earns – and wants them all locked up for life. Mauricio Funes, the president of El Salvador, promises to tackle extortion next, but the police, narcos and other organised criminals are all at it – so that is easier said than done.
Jeanne Rikkers, from the human rights and prison reform NGO Fespad, says: "Despite the US roots, the gangs were an El Salvadorean response to an El Salvadorean reality, flourishing in a perfect storm. State obligations to rehabilitate, reintegrate, improve prisons, reform education and health, need to be done transparently with access for all, not just negotiated for some. A promise to stop killing cannot solve underlying complex social problems."
Mejicanos, a suburb of San Salvador, will become the tenth area declared free from gang violence on 20 June, the third anniversary of the notorious Calle 18 arson attack in which 17 bus passengers died. Father To?o, who moved here from Madrid 14 years ago, chats over coffee while his guards – whose presence is the result of death threats from drug traffickers – loiter outside. "The gangs are the product of the unresolved causes of the civil war: huge inequalities in wealth, democracy and land ownership.
Across the square two girls – cousins aged five and six – persuade me to join in their boisterous game of football, oblivious to the young couples trying to enjoy a quiet moment. Turn the clock back a year, and this typical San Salvador twilight scene could not have existed.
The town was a battleground for the country's two biggest street gangs, Mara Salvatrucha 13 (MS-13) and Calle 18, with gang graffiti marking territory street by street. Both gangs used the square to display dead bodies, so everybody knew who was responsible. This public show of violence instilled deep fear among the street vendors, shop owners and taxi drivers, who were all forced to pay into the gangs' extortion rackets. No one came out after dark. El Salvador was ranked the world's second most murderous country in 2011.
Then, in March 2012, the gangs unexpectedly announced a truce. Leaders from both sides promised to stop the killings in return for more humane prison conditions and help in reintegrating members back into society. The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) government, former leftwing guerrillas, risked the wrath of the gang-hating electorate by negotiating for peace. Within weeks the murder rate fell from 14 a day to five or six. Ilopango was one of the most dangerous municipalities of San Salvador, with 117 murders in 2011. The killings fell dramatically to 62 in 2012, and improbably it became the first area declared free from gang violence.
Marvin Gonzales, 29, a spokesman of MS-13 in Ilopango, is one of 30 gang members operating a chicken farm – a showcase truce project attracting international attention for the city's mayor. He tells me about choosing MS-13 over his family at the age of 12; this farm is his first legal job. "I served 10 years in hell for killing a boy whose name I didn't even know over territory. When my niece's father was sentenced to 136 years for triple murder, I knew this had to stop. I lost six friends to Indoor Positioning System, I can't do it any more."
It's a steep, sweltering descent from the road to the farm, which overlooks El Salvador's largest lake. Though once a chicken farm, for the past 16 years this land served as a rubbish dump. Alex Renderos, 26, screws up his face as he recalls the mountain of stinking rubbish. "That's all we did for three months, it was disgusting, the insects were huge."
He was jailed for three years when his girlfriend was pregnant for possession of a 9mm gun. "I didn't see my daughter until she was three – which hurt here," he says, patting his heart. "That's why we are motivated to make this work."
Grinning, Gonzales hands me an envelope he's been carrying in his back pocket. His girlfriend is pregnant and he wants to show off the 12-week ultrasound scan. "I spent the best years of my life in jail, 100 men in a 20-by-15-metre room. Life for us pandilleros [gang members] is short: we end up in jail or dead. I don't want that for my child."
A couple of days later we drive to the flagship Calle 18 project – a tiny bakery down a side street that is covered in gang graffiti. The ovens are full and young boys are speeding off on bicycles loaded with bread rolls, honking their horns to attract customers. The senior gangsters aren't here, delayed at another meeting at the mayor's office with government officials, MS-13, and Father To?o Rodríguez – a controversial priest who recently joined the negotiating table.
Javier García, 22, has been working in the bakery for four months, earning $5 a day. He was kicked out of school at 14 and, like many teenagers, saw the gang as a laugh, better than being at home. "When I'm in the bakery I am not on the streets, so that's good for everyone," he says while lifting from the oven trays of pan francés – salty bread rolls that Salvadoreans eat with breakfast and dinner. "Maybe I will want to leave one day, but right now I still feel very strongly in my heart for my gang, we look after each other like the three musketeers."
García says his friend Kevin was killed by MS-13 only three months ago after stepping into their territory while selling avocados. "I can never imagine MS-13 as my friends, never. If I saw one now, I would hit him, for Kevin. For this truce to work, we have to stay apart."
The mayor, Salvador Ruano, came to power in Ilopango last May, after a narrow win for the rightwing National Republican Alliance, known by the acronym Arena in Spanish, in a FMLN stronghold – with the party punished for years of infighting by a record low turnout. Despite his squat physique, Ruano cuts an imposing figure as he bellows at me as if addressing a large crowd. "I promised both groups I would help them earn an honest living, as long as they kept their side of the compromise, and now I have them around the same table talking peace and people are definitely safer."
"The problem of violence here is decades old and there is no magic formula, no manual, no perfect solution… I cannot say Ilopango is free from violence, but after one year in power we are in transition from violence to peace. Those who criticise maybe have something to lose from peace."
Ilopango's square has a bloody past. During the 12-year civil war, it was from the airbase around the corner that the feared Atlacatl Battalion, a US–trained special forces unit, was sent in helicopters to massacre civilians in "red zones" such as El Mozote and El Calabozo.
Members of the urban guerrilla movement were captured and tortured and bodies were dumped in the square, says David Munguía, the director of FMLN Ilopango, whose office is adorned with pictures of the "martyrs".
"After one year, all we have is a bakery and a chicken farm that employs a handful of people, this cannot sustain [the] truce," Munguía says. "There are no social programmes or prevention projects and, OK, there are fewer murders, but delinquency, extortion and kidnappings are up.
The fragile truce has powerful religious and political opponents. Norman Quijano, the mayor of San Salvador and Arena's 2014 presidential candidate, is pledging to get tough on crime and stop negotiating with criminals.
El Salvador has the most overcrowded prisons in the world, with 26,000 inmates kettled in prisons built for 8,400 – a direct result of the 2004 Arena Mano Duro or iron-fist policy. But Quijano's claims that murderous gangsters are now living it up with plasma-screen TVs hits a nerve, and his popularity is growing. One taxi driver tells me that he still pays $8 a week to Calle 18 – a quarter of what he earns – and wants them all locked up for life. Mauricio Funes, the president of El Salvador, promises to tackle extortion next, but the police, narcos and other organised criminals are all at it – so that is easier said than done.
Jeanne Rikkers, from the human rights and prison reform NGO Fespad, says: "Despite the US roots, the gangs were an El Salvadorean response to an El Salvadorean reality, flourishing in a perfect storm. State obligations to rehabilitate, reintegrate, improve prisons, reform education and health, need to be done transparently with access for all, not just negotiated for some. A promise to stop killing cannot solve underlying complex social problems."
Mejicanos, a suburb of San Salvador, will become the tenth area declared free from gang violence on 20 June, the third anniversary of the notorious Calle 18 arson attack in which 17 bus passengers died. Father To?o, who moved here from Madrid 14 years ago, chats over coffee while his guards – whose presence is the result of death threats from drug traffickers – loiter outside. "The gangs are the product of the unresolved causes of the civil war: huge inequalities in wealth, democracy and land ownership.
2013年5月23日星期四
Big IBDs Hit a Speed Bump
The rate of revenue growth slowed last year by more than half when compared with the prior year, according to numbers provided by the firms themselves - a falloff due in part to a volatile equity market and a slowdown in recruiting.
And while the industry's fundamentals and long-term prospects look solid, a shifting competitive and regulatory landscape has the potential to radically reshape its future.
"IBDs are a bit of a wild card to predict because their business model is evolving quickly," says Chip Roame, managing partner of Tiburon Strategic Advisors. Citing just one of the industry's X factors, he adds, they "may be the big recipients of the breakaway brokers [from wirehouses] or they may face their own attrition issues as advisors move to fee-only models."
The 28th annual FP50 ranking of the nation's largest independent broker- dealers captures an industry that has healed and grown stronger after the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. Yet the industry also faces a transformative 15- to 20-year process of consolidation, numerous observers say; depending on who you talk to, the broker-dealers are either well along that road or still at the beginning. And a number of external factors last year may have combined to slow industrywide revenue growth: Median revenue grew by 4.7% in 2012, down from 11.9% in 2011.
At first glance, the rankings of the top five seem to have changed little from last year's figures. The industry's leader, behemoth LPL, is still the No. 1 firm by an ever-widening margin after 17 years at the top of the list. With 13,336 advisors, LPL is now the fourth-largest financial services firm in the country after the three largest wirehouses - and dwarfs the No. 2 firm, Ameriprise, with 7,449 independent advisors.
Even typically turbocharged LPL saw its growth cut in half, however, falling to 7.3% last year from 14% in 2011. The drop was even more precipitous for Ameriprise, where growth dropped to 2.4% from 14.8% the Indoor Positioning System. Raymond James, at No. 3, scored a slightly better 4%, off from 15.2% in 2011.
Industry standard bearers Commonwealth, at No. 4, and Cambridge Investment Research, at No. 9, outperformed other members of the top 10 with growth rates of 10.1% and 13.5%, respectively (versus 11.5% and 17% in 2011).
Further down on the top 20, however, the rankings show a couple of other changes. After a period of aggressive recruiting, Wells Fargo Advisors rose to No. 6 from an adjusted seventh-place slot; it also scored the highest growth rate in the top 10, at 14.7%, after a 17% drop in revenue in 2011. MetLife dropped to No.8 from No. 6, reflecting a contraction that may have lead the firm to sell its two independent broker-dealers, Tower Square Securities and Walnut Street Securities, to Cetera Financial Group earlier this year.
In theory, the growth horizon should look practically limitless for this financial advisory channel. Independent broker-dealers stand to benefit, along with the rest of the financial services industry, from the generational transfer of assets now under way. For the next two decades, somewhere between $15 trillion and $30 trillion is anticipated to move from retiring baby boomers to their Gen X and Gen Y offspring. This megatrend, along with expectations that global wealth will balloon to $330 trillion by 2017, from $223 trillion last year , may very well float all financial advisory boats.
"In my view it's the most exciting time to be an advisor in this business," says Larry Roth, CEO of the Advisor Group network and a 30-year industry veteran. "We will have more potential retail clients than we can probably handle for the next 20 years. This year will be the best year or the second best year in [Advisor Group's] history."
Yet the channel faces an array of potential spoilers, including regulatory challenges as well as competition from rival RIAs and wirehouses.
For their part, wirehouses have wised up to the stream of advisor departures. Looking to stem the flow, the Wall Street giants have put rich retention packages in place for key troops. "They've been much more aggressive in trying to lock down their advisors," says Bill Williams, executive vice president of Ameriprise Franchise Group, which oversees the company's independent advisory business.
The wirehouses are also dangling fat transition packages - typically three to three-and-a-half times trailing 12-month revenue - to lure in top fee-based teams, according to Mindy Diamond of advisor recruiting firm Diamond Consultants. She says an advisor who is willing to work in an environment that is less than fully independent might logically think: "Why not go to the wirehouse world, where there's much more support, more technology and a big fat transition package?"
At the other end of the spectrum, the broker-dealers must counter the appeal of the RIA space - particularly if regulators fail to monitor that space as fully as they currently oversee wirehouses and independent broker-dealers. That regulatory differential is actually exacerbating the competition for talent, executives say.
"RIAs are regulated infinitesimally compared to B-Ds," says Cambridge Investment Research CEO Eric Schwartz. "If [regulators] make it harder and harder to do commission-based business, those changes could be a huge blow to the independent B-D space."
Raymond James CEO Scott Curtis agrees. "We need to close that gap," Curtis says. "Those differences are pretty stark and pretty wide. ... [Advisors] all ought to be operating under the same standard of care."
In just one indicator of the current uneven playing field, Curtis points out that blogs and marketing materials, while heavily regulated at independent broker-dealers, escape compliance oversight at RIAs. "That is a big difference," he says.
Traditionally, one of the most important ways to grow revenues has been to add advisors to a firm. Many independent broker-dealers, especially the largest ones, have done so by either acquiring other firms or recruiting advisors. But recruiting in particular has become more difficult, experts say.
"Overall, we are seeing a trend of slowing recruiting," says Phil Palaveev, founder of Seattle-based practice consulting firm Ensemble Practice. "The IBD industry has consolidated dramatically and the remaining firms are very strong. Those are not B-Ds that lose advisors very easily." As competition for talent increases, independent broker-dealers are focusing on internal growth more intensely than ever. In fact, organic growth may be the new, unsung success story.
And while the industry's fundamentals and long-term prospects look solid, a shifting competitive and regulatory landscape has the potential to radically reshape its future.
"IBDs are a bit of a wild card to predict because their business model is evolving quickly," says Chip Roame, managing partner of Tiburon Strategic Advisors. Citing just one of the industry's X factors, he adds, they "may be the big recipients of the breakaway brokers [from wirehouses] or they may face their own attrition issues as advisors move to fee-only models."
The 28th annual FP50 ranking of the nation's largest independent broker- dealers captures an industry that has healed and grown stronger after the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. Yet the industry also faces a transformative 15- to 20-year process of consolidation, numerous observers say; depending on who you talk to, the broker-dealers are either well along that road or still at the beginning. And a number of external factors last year may have combined to slow industrywide revenue growth: Median revenue grew by 4.7% in 2012, down from 11.9% in 2011.
At first glance, the rankings of the top five seem to have changed little from last year's figures. The industry's leader, behemoth LPL, is still the No. 1 firm by an ever-widening margin after 17 years at the top of the list. With 13,336 advisors, LPL is now the fourth-largest financial services firm in the country after the three largest wirehouses - and dwarfs the No. 2 firm, Ameriprise, with 7,449 independent advisors.
Even typically turbocharged LPL saw its growth cut in half, however, falling to 7.3% last year from 14% in 2011. The drop was even more precipitous for Ameriprise, where growth dropped to 2.4% from 14.8% the Indoor Positioning System. Raymond James, at No. 3, scored a slightly better 4%, off from 15.2% in 2011.
Industry standard bearers Commonwealth, at No. 4, and Cambridge Investment Research, at No. 9, outperformed other members of the top 10 with growth rates of 10.1% and 13.5%, respectively (versus 11.5% and 17% in 2011).
Further down on the top 20, however, the rankings show a couple of other changes. After a period of aggressive recruiting, Wells Fargo Advisors rose to No. 6 from an adjusted seventh-place slot; it also scored the highest growth rate in the top 10, at 14.7%, after a 17% drop in revenue in 2011. MetLife dropped to No.8 from No. 6, reflecting a contraction that may have lead the firm to sell its two independent broker-dealers, Tower Square Securities and Walnut Street Securities, to Cetera Financial Group earlier this year.
In theory, the growth horizon should look practically limitless for this financial advisory channel. Independent broker-dealers stand to benefit, along with the rest of the financial services industry, from the generational transfer of assets now under way. For the next two decades, somewhere between $15 trillion and $30 trillion is anticipated to move from retiring baby boomers to their Gen X and Gen Y offspring. This megatrend, along with expectations that global wealth will balloon to $330 trillion by 2017, from $223 trillion last year , may very well float all financial advisory boats.
"In my view it's the most exciting time to be an advisor in this business," says Larry Roth, CEO of the Advisor Group network and a 30-year industry veteran. "We will have more potential retail clients than we can probably handle for the next 20 years. This year will be the best year or the second best year in [Advisor Group's] history."
Yet the channel faces an array of potential spoilers, including regulatory challenges as well as competition from rival RIAs and wirehouses.
For their part, wirehouses have wised up to the stream of advisor departures. Looking to stem the flow, the Wall Street giants have put rich retention packages in place for key troops. "They've been much more aggressive in trying to lock down their advisors," says Bill Williams, executive vice president of Ameriprise Franchise Group, which oversees the company's independent advisory business.
The wirehouses are also dangling fat transition packages - typically three to three-and-a-half times trailing 12-month revenue - to lure in top fee-based teams, according to Mindy Diamond of advisor recruiting firm Diamond Consultants. She says an advisor who is willing to work in an environment that is less than fully independent might logically think: "Why not go to the wirehouse world, where there's much more support, more technology and a big fat transition package?"
At the other end of the spectrum, the broker-dealers must counter the appeal of the RIA space - particularly if regulators fail to monitor that space as fully as they currently oversee wirehouses and independent broker-dealers. That regulatory differential is actually exacerbating the competition for talent, executives say.
"RIAs are regulated infinitesimally compared to B-Ds," says Cambridge Investment Research CEO Eric Schwartz. "If [regulators] make it harder and harder to do commission-based business, those changes could be a huge blow to the independent B-D space."
Raymond James CEO Scott Curtis agrees. "We need to close that gap," Curtis says. "Those differences are pretty stark and pretty wide. ... [Advisors] all ought to be operating under the same standard of care."
In just one indicator of the current uneven playing field, Curtis points out that blogs and marketing materials, while heavily regulated at independent broker-dealers, escape compliance oversight at RIAs. "That is a big difference," he says.
Traditionally, one of the most important ways to grow revenues has been to add advisors to a firm. Many independent broker-dealers, especially the largest ones, have done so by either acquiring other firms or recruiting advisors. But recruiting in particular has become more difficult, experts say.
"Overall, we are seeing a trend of slowing recruiting," says Phil Palaveev, founder of Seattle-based practice consulting firm Ensemble Practice. "The IBD industry has consolidated dramatically and the remaining firms are very strong. Those are not B-Ds that lose advisors very easily." As competition for talent increases, independent broker-dealers are focusing on internal growth more intensely than ever. In fact, organic growth may be the new, unsung success story.
2013年3月3日星期日
China's New Record: World's Biggest Cost Blow-out
China is justifiably proud of its economic development, but there’s one “achievement” rarely mentioned, a project which has suffered what is possibly the world’s worst cost blow-out and completion delay — an iron ore mine which is three years late, three-times over budget; and counting!
When construction started at the Sino Iron project on the north-west coast of Australia in 2006 the wholly-Chinese owned mine and associated processing facility was expected to cost $2.5 billion and start shipping iron in 2009.
At last count the budget had passed $8 billion and was said to be heading for $10 billion with the first shipment date pushed out again just last week to “late March or early April”.
The new deadline was revealed after Sino Iron’s owner, the Hong Kong-based CiticPacific, filed its annual results and provided an update on a mine which has caused nothing but trouble since it was approved, and now threatens to become tangled in legal disputes.
One of those disputes is with the major construction contractor, a Chinese company called Metallurgical Corporation of China, another is with Clive Palmer, the self-made Australian millionaire with a plan to build a replica of Titanic, the unsinkable passenger liner that claimed 1502 lives when it sank in the North Atlantic in 1912.
Palmer pocketed more than $400 million when he sold Citic Pacific the right to mine two billion tonnes of iron ore on tenements he had held for more than 20 years, and also secured a future royalty deal which should be generating more than $100 million a year – if the mine hits its targets.
But, failure to build the mine on schedule and failure to stick to its budget means that Citic Pacific is looking for a way to minimise its exposure to the Palmer royalty which is why the two are locked in a battle in the Supreme Court of Western Australia over the precise terms of the original deal with Citic, naturally, wanting to pay less and Palmer, naturally, wanting to maximise his return for other projects, such as the Titanic replica.
Meanwhile, at the Sino Iron site the latest deadline nears for first shipment from a project which still faces two big challenges.
The first is that Citic Pacific has decided to limit its immediate annual production target to 10 million tons of exportable iron ore a year from two ore-processing “lines” rather than push ahead to the original target of 28 million tons from six lines, a decision which will dramatically increase the cost per ton.
The second is that the export phase of the project will use a shipping system untried in Australia’s hurricane-prone north-west.
Despite the cost blow-out and completion delay Citic Pacific’s chairman, Chang Zhenming, said with the release of the company’s 2012 profit result (down 25% to HK$6.95 billion) that the company would press ahead with Sino Iron.
“We have put so much into this project in every sense, time, energy and capital, that it is indeed gratifying to see the progress we have made despite the delays and unexpected costs,” Chang said.
There has not been a single issue which has tripped Citic Pacific with problems encountered in under-estimating Australia’s high domestic costs, labor shortages, a sharp increase in the exchange rate, and difficulties operating in a remote region.
The challenge of the location will be put to its next test when loading starts for the first export shipments because the Sino Iron project does not include a conventional wharf, opting instead for “trans-shipping” with tugs pulling barges to bulk carriers anchored offshore, a system which works well in calm waters but could be a challenge in heavy seas.
Financially, the Sino Iron project is already a disaster. Whether it can ever recover from the capital cost blow-out is questionable, more so now that Citic Pacific has decided to go slow on finalising what it started because the operating costs will be sky-high thanks to the sunk capital and limited early-year production.
With regards to mechanized data processing procedures, data fusion is defined as an ongoing and hierarchic computational process in conditions of uncertainty. This is based on multiple sources of information that refer to objects in the expanse, with objectives that include: improving measurement performance with regards to a solitary sensor; adding new information fields; creating a situational picture; assessing a situation; creating insights and more.
With the development of sensory measures, the collection of digital information and the computational capabilities of modern processors, there is a growing awareness and desire to impart similar capabilities to automated systems as well. If in the past the bottleneck was in the amount of relevant data available for fusion, then today the bottleneck is the flood of information that cannot be handled by human elements.
The methods and algorithms developed over the course of recent decades are divided into several categories according to the various levels of processing. One of the division manners accepted today was formed in the US starting from the mid 1980s, and is called as the “Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Model.” This model proposes the division of data fusion stages according to the processing of raw data (at the sensor level, for example), object qualities, situation assessment, threat assessment, procedural feedback, and man-machine interface.
Several improvements and expansions were proposed for the model. At the lower fusion levels, we will note algorithms dealing with geographical data, spotting, course tracking and more, among them a "Kelman" filter and a particle filter. We also mention methods for imagery fusion, starting with the single pixel level and up to the level of characteristics, including many registration methods, PCA and wavelet decomposition-based algorithms, Bayesian models, making deductions in conditions of uncertainty (the Dampster- Shafer theory) and more.
The types of systems that make use of the potential embodied in the fusion process are wide, and include civilian, military and defensive electronic systems, such as medical, port security, border, command and control, HLS, air control, field intelligence systems and more.
When construction started at the Sino Iron project on the north-west coast of Australia in 2006 the wholly-Chinese owned mine and associated processing facility was expected to cost $2.5 billion and start shipping iron in 2009.
At last count the budget had passed $8 billion and was said to be heading for $10 billion with the first shipment date pushed out again just last week to “late March or early April”.
The new deadline was revealed after Sino Iron’s owner, the Hong Kong-based CiticPacific, filed its annual results and provided an update on a mine which has caused nothing but trouble since it was approved, and now threatens to become tangled in legal disputes.
One of those disputes is with the major construction contractor, a Chinese company called Metallurgical Corporation of China, another is with Clive Palmer, the self-made Australian millionaire with a plan to build a replica of Titanic, the unsinkable passenger liner that claimed 1502 lives when it sank in the North Atlantic in 1912.
Palmer pocketed more than $400 million when he sold Citic Pacific the right to mine two billion tonnes of iron ore on tenements he had held for more than 20 years, and also secured a future royalty deal which should be generating more than $100 million a year – if the mine hits its targets.
But, failure to build the mine on schedule and failure to stick to its budget means that Citic Pacific is looking for a way to minimise its exposure to the Palmer royalty which is why the two are locked in a battle in the Supreme Court of Western Australia over the precise terms of the original deal with Citic, naturally, wanting to pay less and Palmer, naturally, wanting to maximise his return for other projects, such as the Titanic replica.
Meanwhile, at the Sino Iron site the latest deadline nears for first shipment from a project which still faces two big challenges.
The first is that Citic Pacific has decided to limit its immediate annual production target to 10 million tons of exportable iron ore a year from two ore-processing “lines” rather than push ahead to the original target of 28 million tons from six lines, a decision which will dramatically increase the cost per ton.
The second is that the export phase of the project will use a shipping system untried in Australia’s hurricane-prone north-west.
Despite the cost blow-out and completion delay Citic Pacific’s chairman, Chang Zhenming, said with the release of the company’s 2012 profit result (down 25% to HK$6.95 billion) that the company would press ahead with Sino Iron.
“We have put so much into this project in every sense, time, energy and capital, that it is indeed gratifying to see the progress we have made despite the delays and unexpected costs,” Chang said.
There has not been a single issue which has tripped Citic Pacific with problems encountered in under-estimating Australia’s high domestic costs, labor shortages, a sharp increase in the exchange rate, and difficulties operating in a remote region.
The challenge of the location will be put to its next test when loading starts for the first export shipments because the Sino Iron project does not include a conventional wharf, opting instead for “trans-shipping” with tugs pulling barges to bulk carriers anchored offshore, a system which works well in calm waters but could be a challenge in heavy seas.
Financially, the Sino Iron project is already a disaster. Whether it can ever recover from the capital cost blow-out is questionable, more so now that Citic Pacific has decided to go slow on finalising what it started because the operating costs will be sky-high thanks to the sunk capital and limited early-year production.
With regards to mechanized data processing procedures, data fusion is defined as an ongoing and hierarchic computational process in conditions of uncertainty. This is based on multiple sources of information that refer to objects in the expanse, with objectives that include: improving measurement performance with regards to a solitary sensor; adding new information fields; creating a situational picture; assessing a situation; creating insights and more.
With the development of sensory measures, the collection of digital information and the computational capabilities of modern processors, there is a growing awareness and desire to impart similar capabilities to automated systems as well. If in the past the bottleneck was in the amount of relevant data available for fusion, then today the bottleneck is the flood of information that cannot be handled by human elements.
The methods and algorithms developed over the course of recent decades are divided into several categories according to the various levels of processing. One of the division manners accepted today was formed in the US starting from the mid 1980s, and is called as the “Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Model.” This model proposes the division of data fusion stages according to the processing of raw data (at the sensor level, for example), object qualities, situation assessment, threat assessment, procedural feedback, and man-machine interface.
Several improvements and expansions were proposed for the model. At the lower fusion levels, we will note algorithms dealing with geographical data, spotting, course tracking and more, among them a "Kelman" filter and a particle filter. We also mention methods for imagery fusion, starting with the single pixel level and up to the level of characteristics, including many registration methods, PCA and wavelet decomposition-based algorithms, Bayesian models, making deductions in conditions of uncertainty (the Dampster- Shafer theory) and more.
The types of systems that make use of the potential embodied in the fusion process are wide, and include civilian, military and defensive electronic systems, such as medical, port security, border, command and control, HLS, air control, field intelligence systems and more.
2013年1月8日星期二
An excerpt from Stanley McChrystal’s “My Share of the Task”
The interior of the UH-60 Black Hawk was dark to avoid presenting a glowing target in the night sky. Gunners on either side of the helicopter manned machine guns, maintaining a constant vigil for enemy threats. Below, the rugged Afghan landscape, devoid of any speck of man- made light, was even darker. I could just make out hills, valleys, and an occasional mud- brown compound. Inside the aircraft it was cold, and I pulled my parka tightly around me. The army- issue gear was far better than it had been in the early years of my career, but lately I seemed to feel the cold more than I had back then. It was 2009 and at fifty five, I wasn’t the young lieutenant I’d been thirty- four years earlier. At best, I was a well- worn version of the officer who had spent so many nights like this one alongside warriors.
In a few hours it would be Christmas. Although I didn’t know it at the time, it would be my last as a soldier.
I looked around at the other men on the aircraft. Although we all wore headsets connected through the UH-60’s intercom system, we rarely spoke. Normally during long night flights, men were lost in thought, and, especially tonight, I respected their solitude. The eight years of war since 9/ 11 had meant several Christmases away from home for most of these men. For soldiers at war, there’s comforting continuity in the traditions and inevitability of Christmas. We savored memories of Christmases past, made the most of, or endured, the one we had at the time, and dreamed incessantly about those we’d have in the future. I felt a bit like Dickens’s Scrooge pushing them so hard on a night that should be special. For each of us, Christmas stirred deep memories and strong emotions. But this was the life of our choice.
Sitting directly across from me was my aide, Major Casey Welch, no doubt thinking about his wife and two small children. Casey had spent twenty- seven months in combat in Iraq, including a tough year in Samarra. He had been home for only five months when I had been designated to command in Afghanistan and he had volunteered to deploy again.
Sitting next to Casey was an unimposing figure hunched over a dimly lit laptop. The reading glasses and lines on his face matched mine. I couldn’t help but smile slightly as I watched him work. Mike Hall was my old friend and, more important, the finest soldier I’d ever known. After over thirty years of service and then eighteen months at a good civilian job, a phone call had brought the retired command sergeant major back on active duty to become the senior enlisted adviser of all international forces in Afghanistan. Now he would spend yet another Christmas away from his wife, Brenda, and son, Jeff.
Charlie sat to my left, close by, as always. I had known Colonel Charlie Flynn since he was a lieutenant twenty- three years earlier, and I remembered how his first child, Molly, had been born while Charlie was deployed to the first Gulf War. A couple of years later he’d commanded a company for me in the 2nd Ranger Battalion, and his young son Sean was climbing over pews at Christmas Eve Mass in the historic Fort Lewis chapel. Thirteen years later, upon his redeployment in 2008 from his fourth combat tour— fifteen months commanding a brigade combat team in Iraq— I’d asked him to join me in the Pentagon as my executive assistant. When alerted for Afghanistan in May of 2009, the first two officers I sought to form the nucleus of the team were Charlie and his older brother Mike.
Just behind the bird’s pilots sat Chief Warrant Officer Shawn Lowery, the man responsible for our security. With a shaved head and a serious countenance, Shawn’s all-business gravitas masked a dry, wicked sense of humor. He’d pronounced himself “unenthusiastic” about my decision not to wear body armor some months prior, but took the decision in stride. Shawn had been back from his most recent tour in Afghanistan less than a year when I was notified to deploy. But he had volunteered without hesitation to go forward again.
As the December air rushed in the open windows where the door guns were mounted, I readied myself for the next stop. Continuing a tradition of military commanders, starting that afternoon we’d begun a journey to visit six outposts on Christmas Eve. The next would be the fi fth. At each location we spent time with soldiers, gave them a short talk, normally in their mess hall, and took the opportunity to circulate, pose for pictures that they could send home, and, most important, thank them. It was tiring but unfailingly inspiring to me. A few hours later, on Christmas Day, we’d launch again to six other bases, several manned by soldiers from our coalition partners. Christmases with Polish and Romanian troops, including religious ceremonies in crude bunkers and huts, were deeply spiritual experiences.
Soothed by the rhythmic vibration of the rotors, my mind wandered to the more than half century of Christmases I’d experienced. I remembered early- morning excitement as my four brothers, one sister, and I rushed down to the living room of our small Arlington, Virginia, house, where presents from Santa Claus were reliably piled for each of us. I most loved getting toy soldiers I could use with the handcrafted wooden forts my father built and my mother painted. During the years my father was in Vietnam, my mother struggled to make Christmases special. I could only guess how my father felt until I got a taste as a young captain in Korea during my first yearlong separation from my wife, Annie. Along the DMZ on Christmas Eve, a well- intentioned morale visit to our unit by a USO tour only made me miss Annie, and Christmas, all the more.
Becoming a father made Christmas more important to me than ever. Fatherhood was a great excuse to play with toys again. I remember the fun Annie and I had staying up late assembling a plastic fort for my son Sam’s Rambo figurines, and I could still hear my father shaming me into finally buying Annie a color TV. Even memories of punji stake– like pain from stepping barefoot on a rogue Lego block now brought a smile. I wanted the young men and women I’d visit that night to know that I understood the ache inherent in Christmas so far from home.
I had spent four straight Christmases, starting in 2004, in Iraq or Afghanistan, typically traveling to be in one location on Christmas Eve, then making a night flight to be in the other on Christmas Day. I’d listen to Christmas music on my iPod, particularly Alabama’s “Christmas in Dixie,” which made me homesick, but I couldn’t help it. And I knew that as much as I missed Annie and Sam, young soldiers bore the heavier burden of missing the all- too- temporary magic of their children’s holiday joy.
As we reached the forward operating base, or FOB, we could see from the air the series of simple buildings constructed of Afghan bricks and mortar. It was a small, fortified outpost manned by a combined U. S. and Afghan force totaling about seventy- five soldiers. Its position on high ground above Afghanistan’s open terrain gave it a deceptively imposing Beau Geste– like appearance. But its only real strength lay in the effectiveness of the soldiers inside. In a few minutes I’d be able to see that for myself. We landed a couple hundred meters away and walked with the commanding officer through the gate and into the outpost.
Because it was dark and cold, we met the soldiers inside. Like most small outposts, this one was rudimentary but functional. Generators provided power. There was a small operations and communications center, bay barracks in which groups of soldiers arranged bunks and gear, and a mess hall. Small trees and other decorations, obviously sent by loved ones, brought Christmas into the crude surroundings. Except for some of the more modern equipment, soldiers on similar counterinsurgency duty in the American West in 1868, the Philippines in 1900, Malaya in 1950, Indochina in 1952, Algeria in 1956, or Vietnam in 1965 might have found the outpost familiar. It was warfare at its most basic, where success depended more on lieutenants, sergeants, and privates in lonely forts or on small patrols than on grand plans in a generals’ headquarters.
As always, the officers and senior noncommissioned officers were polite and forthcoming, but the younger troops were initially distant and uncommunicative, as though they were only there because they’d been directed to show up. Their reticence didn’t bother me. It was always that way. Only afterward, when Mike Hall and I spoke to them as a group, presented some hard-earned awards, and then mingled, offering to pose for pictures and answer questions, did they loosen up. Before long, the gathering became animated, and I felt connected to them.
As we prepared to reboard the UH-60 to fl y to our final stop for the night, several groups asked to take pictures with Mike and me. While we assembled one group, I introduced myself to a young soldier. As I always tried to do, I began by looking at the rank and name tape on his combat uniform so I could address him as personally as possible. I read his name and paused. Then I asked him quietly if his father had been a soldier. He said that he had. I cautiously asked if his father had been a Ranger. The young man, anticipating what I was trying to determine, confirmed that his father had been a Ranger whom I had known well. After leaving the Rangers, his father had joined an elite Army commando unit and had been killed in 2005 in a nighttime raid on an Al Qaeda safe house. He had been lost under my command, during a summer of bitter fighting in Iraq’s Western Euphrates River valley, at a critical juncture in a war that now felt a lifetime past. Now his young son had taken his place in the ranks. For a moment I was silent.
There was no outward drama or emotion. The young man clearly sought no special recognition. It felt strangely natural. I asked about his mother and soon moved on to talk to other young soldiers. But as I did, it struck me that, in an era when military service is a question of choice, he, like his father, had chosen to spend Christmas in rough surroundings. I looked around the room at the young soldiers and their slightly older sergeants. They had all made the same choice.
On the flight north that night, I absorbed the continuity of war. I knew from history that war comes with frightening regularity, often fought over the same ground and similar causes as previous conflicts. Wars often begin with enthusiastic vigor but typically settle into costly, dirty business characterized for soldiers by fear, frustration, and loneliness.
There was also continuity in soldiers. In the young soldiers on outposts, in the sergeants and junior officers who led them, and particularly in the team of professionals I worked alongside each day— the Charlies, Mikes, Caseys, and Shawns— I felt the unbroken tradition of commitment to a mission, and a fierce commitment to one another. Like the generations they followed and those they now led, they came forward when called and sacrificed when needed. They did so quietly, often in shadows, with no expectation of reward. They were no better than their grandfathers, and not a bit worse.
In a few hours it would be Christmas. Although I didn’t know it at the time, it would be my last as a soldier.
I looked around at the other men on the aircraft. Although we all wore headsets connected through the UH-60’s intercom system, we rarely spoke. Normally during long night flights, men were lost in thought, and, especially tonight, I respected their solitude. The eight years of war since 9/ 11 had meant several Christmases away from home for most of these men. For soldiers at war, there’s comforting continuity in the traditions and inevitability of Christmas. We savored memories of Christmases past, made the most of, or endured, the one we had at the time, and dreamed incessantly about those we’d have in the future. I felt a bit like Dickens’s Scrooge pushing them so hard on a night that should be special. For each of us, Christmas stirred deep memories and strong emotions. But this was the life of our choice.
Sitting directly across from me was my aide, Major Casey Welch, no doubt thinking about his wife and two small children. Casey had spent twenty- seven months in combat in Iraq, including a tough year in Samarra. He had been home for only five months when I had been designated to command in Afghanistan and he had volunteered to deploy again.
Sitting next to Casey was an unimposing figure hunched over a dimly lit laptop. The reading glasses and lines on his face matched mine. I couldn’t help but smile slightly as I watched him work. Mike Hall was my old friend and, more important, the finest soldier I’d ever known. After over thirty years of service and then eighteen months at a good civilian job, a phone call had brought the retired command sergeant major back on active duty to become the senior enlisted adviser of all international forces in Afghanistan. Now he would spend yet another Christmas away from his wife, Brenda, and son, Jeff.
Charlie sat to my left, close by, as always. I had known Colonel Charlie Flynn since he was a lieutenant twenty- three years earlier, and I remembered how his first child, Molly, had been born while Charlie was deployed to the first Gulf War. A couple of years later he’d commanded a company for me in the 2nd Ranger Battalion, and his young son Sean was climbing over pews at Christmas Eve Mass in the historic Fort Lewis chapel. Thirteen years later, upon his redeployment in 2008 from his fourth combat tour— fifteen months commanding a brigade combat team in Iraq— I’d asked him to join me in the Pentagon as my executive assistant. When alerted for Afghanistan in May of 2009, the first two officers I sought to form the nucleus of the team were Charlie and his older brother Mike.
Just behind the bird’s pilots sat Chief Warrant Officer Shawn Lowery, the man responsible for our security. With a shaved head and a serious countenance, Shawn’s all-business gravitas masked a dry, wicked sense of humor. He’d pronounced himself “unenthusiastic” about my decision not to wear body armor some months prior, but took the decision in stride. Shawn had been back from his most recent tour in Afghanistan less than a year when I was notified to deploy. But he had volunteered without hesitation to go forward again.
As the December air rushed in the open windows where the door guns were mounted, I readied myself for the next stop. Continuing a tradition of military commanders, starting that afternoon we’d begun a journey to visit six outposts on Christmas Eve. The next would be the fi fth. At each location we spent time with soldiers, gave them a short talk, normally in their mess hall, and took the opportunity to circulate, pose for pictures that they could send home, and, most important, thank them. It was tiring but unfailingly inspiring to me. A few hours later, on Christmas Day, we’d launch again to six other bases, several manned by soldiers from our coalition partners. Christmases with Polish and Romanian troops, including religious ceremonies in crude bunkers and huts, were deeply spiritual experiences.
Soothed by the rhythmic vibration of the rotors, my mind wandered to the more than half century of Christmases I’d experienced. I remembered early- morning excitement as my four brothers, one sister, and I rushed down to the living room of our small Arlington, Virginia, house, where presents from Santa Claus were reliably piled for each of us. I most loved getting toy soldiers I could use with the handcrafted wooden forts my father built and my mother painted. During the years my father was in Vietnam, my mother struggled to make Christmases special. I could only guess how my father felt until I got a taste as a young captain in Korea during my first yearlong separation from my wife, Annie. Along the DMZ on Christmas Eve, a well- intentioned morale visit to our unit by a USO tour only made me miss Annie, and Christmas, all the more.
Becoming a father made Christmas more important to me than ever. Fatherhood was a great excuse to play with toys again. I remember the fun Annie and I had staying up late assembling a plastic fort for my son Sam’s Rambo figurines, and I could still hear my father shaming me into finally buying Annie a color TV. Even memories of punji stake– like pain from stepping barefoot on a rogue Lego block now brought a smile. I wanted the young men and women I’d visit that night to know that I understood the ache inherent in Christmas so far from home.
I had spent four straight Christmases, starting in 2004, in Iraq or Afghanistan, typically traveling to be in one location on Christmas Eve, then making a night flight to be in the other on Christmas Day. I’d listen to Christmas music on my iPod, particularly Alabama’s “Christmas in Dixie,” which made me homesick, but I couldn’t help it. And I knew that as much as I missed Annie and Sam, young soldiers bore the heavier burden of missing the all- too- temporary magic of their children’s holiday joy.
As we reached the forward operating base, or FOB, we could see from the air the series of simple buildings constructed of Afghan bricks and mortar. It was a small, fortified outpost manned by a combined U. S. and Afghan force totaling about seventy- five soldiers. Its position on high ground above Afghanistan’s open terrain gave it a deceptively imposing Beau Geste– like appearance. But its only real strength lay in the effectiveness of the soldiers inside. In a few minutes I’d be able to see that for myself. We landed a couple hundred meters away and walked with the commanding officer through the gate and into the outpost.
Because it was dark and cold, we met the soldiers inside. Like most small outposts, this one was rudimentary but functional. Generators provided power. There was a small operations and communications center, bay barracks in which groups of soldiers arranged bunks and gear, and a mess hall. Small trees and other decorations, obviously sent by loved ones, brought Christmas into the crude surroundings. Except for some of the more modern equipment, soldiers on similar counterinsurgency duty in the American West in 1868, the Philippines in 1900, Malaya in 1950, Indochina in 1952, Algeria in 1956, or Vietnam in 1965 might have found the outpost familiar. It was warfare at its most basic, where success depended more on lieutenants, sergeants, and privates in lonely forts or on small patrols than on grand plans in a generals’ headquarters.
As always, the officers and senior noncommissioned officers were polite and forthcoming, but the younger troops were initially distant and uncommunicative, as though they were only there because they’d been directed to show up. Their reticence didn’t bother me. It was always that way. Only afterward, when Mike Hall and I spoke to them as a group, presented some hard-earned awards, and then mingled, offering to pose for pictures and answer questions, did they loosen up. Before long, the gathering became animated, and I felt connected to them.
As we prepared to reboard the UH-60 to fl y to our final stop for the night, several groups asked to take pictures with Mike and me. While we assembled one group, I introduced myself to a young soldier. As I always tried to do, I began by looking at the rank and name tape on his combat uniform so I could address him as personally as possible. I read his name and paused. Then I asked him quietly if his father had been a soldier. He said that he had. I cautiously asked if his father had been a Ranger. The young man, anticipating what I was trying to determine, confirmed that his father had been a Ranger whom I had known well. After leaving the Rangers, his father had joined an elite Army commando unit and had been killed in 2005 in a nighttime raid on an Al Qaeda safe house. He had been lost under my command, during a summer of bitter fighting in Iraq’s Western Euphrates River valley, at a critical juncture in a war that now felt a lifetime past. Now his young son had taken his place in the ranks. For a moment I was silent.
There was no outward drama or emotion. The young man clearly sought no special recognition. It felt strangely natural. I asked about his mother and soon moved on to talk to other young soldiers. But as I did, it struck me that, in an era when military service is a question of choice, he, like his father, had chosen to spend Christmas in rough surroundings. I looked around the room at the young soldiers and their slightly older sergeants. They had all made the same choice.
On the flight north that night, I absorbed the continuity of war. I knew from history that war comes with frightening regularity, often fought over the same ground and similar causes as previous conflicts. Wars often begin with enthusiastic vigor but typically settle into costly, dirty business characterized for soldiers by fear, frustration, and loneliness.
There was also continuity in soldiers. In the young soldiers on outposts, in the sergeants and junior officers who led them, and particularly in the team of professionals I worked alongside each day— the Charlies, Mikes, Caseys, and Shawns— I felt the unbroken tradition of commitment to a mission, and a fierce commitment to one another. Like the generations they followed and those they now led, they came forward when called and sacrificed when needed. They did so quietly, often in shadows, with no expectation of reward. They were no better than their grandfathers, and not a bit worse.
2011年8月25日星期四
Off to the carnival at this year's Fringe
Take a walk through the wild side of carnival life in one of this year's Vancouver International Fringe Festival productions.
Burnaby resident Brian Anderson -a 20-year veteran of Vancouver Theatresports League and director of last year's Fringe hit Gutenberg! The Musical! -takes the title role in his creation Arnie the Carnie's House of Fun.
From nailing hammers up his nose to laying on a bed of nails, and offering up card tricks, the show is a glimpse into the sideshow stunts made famous over the years.
"In a world of YouTube and CGI, it's rare for people to experience wonders in real life," said Anderson in a press release. "We'll be performing some classic stunts of the carnival in front of a live audience and tracing the history of the legendary carnies who created them."
North Vancouver piano player Matt Grinke -who is also currently appearing as lead keyboardist at Theatre Under the Stars' Bye Bye Birdie -provides musical accompaniment and a few stunts of his own.
"When I realized that Matt's talents went beyond the keyboard, we wanted to find a way to showcase his amazing mathematical skills," said Anderson.
During the show, Grinke will unscramble a Rubik's Cube in under a minute, and try to create a magic cube square -where every row and column adds up to a specific number. In this case, the number will be decided by the audience. Allen Morrison, also of Vancouver TheatreSports, is directing the production.
Burnaby resident Brian Anderson -a 20-year veteran of Vancouver Theatresports League and director of last year's Fringe hit Gutenberg! The Musical! -takes the title role in his creation Arnie the Carnie's House of Fun.
From nailing hammers up his nose to laying on a bed of nails, and offering up card tricks, the show is a glimpse into the sideshow stunts made famous over the years.
"In a world of YouTube and CGI, it's rare for people to experience wonders in real life," said Anderson in a press release. "We'll be performing some classic stunts of the carnival in front of a live audience and tracing the history of the legendary carnies who created them."
North Vancouver piano player Matt Grinke -who is also currently appearing as lead keyboardist at Theatre Under the Stars' Bye Bye Birdie -provides musical accompaniment and a few stunts of his own.
"When I realized that Matt's talents went beyond the keyboard, we wanted to find a way to showcase his amazing mathematical skills," said Anderson.
During the show, Grinke will unscramble a Rubik's Cube in under a minute, and try to create a magic cube square -where every row and column adds up to a specific number. In this case, the number will be decided by the audience. Allen Morrison, also of Vancouver TheatreSports, is directing the production.
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