Politicians meeting with Egypt's president on Monday proposed hostile acts against Ethiopia, including backing rebels and carrying out sabotage, to stop it from building a massive dam on the Nile River upstream.
Some of the politicians appeared unaware the meeting with President Mohammed Morsi was being carried live on TV. Morsi did not directly react to the suggestions, but said in concluding remarks that Egypt respects Ethiopia and its people and will not engage in any aggressive acts against the East African nation.
Morsi called the meeting to review the impact of Ethiopia's $4.2 billion hydroelectric dam, which would be Africa's largest. Egypt in the past has threatened to go to war over its "historic rights" to Nile River water.
Morsi's office later said he had directed his foreign and irrigation ministers to maintain contact with the Ethiopian government to obtain more information on the dam and its likely impact on Egypt's share of the Nile water.
His office's statement included an ominous-sounding note, saying: "Egypt will never surrender its right to Nile water and all options (to safeguard it) are being considered."
Ethiopia last week started diverting the flow of the Nile to make way for its hydroelectric plant dubbed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. On completion, it is expected to produce 6,000 megawatts, and its reservoir is scheduled to start filling next year.
An independent panel of experts has concluded that the dam will not significantly affect downstream Sudan and Egypt, which are highly dependent on the water of the world's longest river, said an Ethiopian official, who spoke Saturday on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the topic.
But in Cairo on Monday, Younis Makhyoun, leader of an ultraconservative Islamist party, said Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam. He said Egypt made a "strategic error" when it did not object to the dam's construction.
Makhyoun said Ethiopia is "fragile" because of rebel movements inside the country. "We can communicate with them and use them as a bargaining chip against the Ethiopian government," he said.
"If all this fails, then there is no choice left for Egypt but to play the final card, which is using the intelligence service to destroy the dam," said Makhyoun, whose Nour party won about 25 percent of parliament's seats in elections in late 2011 and early 2012.
Another politician, liberal Ayman Nour, proposed spreading rumors about Egypt obtaining refueling aircraft to create the impression that it plans an airstrike to destroy the dam.
Abu al-Ila Madi, leader of the pro-Morsi Islamist Wasat party, suggested that a rumor that Egypt planned to destroy the dam could scare the Ethiopians into cooperating with Egypt on the project.
Magdy Hussein, another Islamist politician, warned that talk of military action against Ethiopia is "very dangerous" and will only turn Ethiopians into enemies. He suggested soft diplomacy in dealing with the crisis, including organizing a film festival in Ethiopia and dispatching researchers and translation missions.
Ethiopia's decision to construct the dam challenges a colonial-era agreement that had given Egypt and Sudan rights to the Nile water, with Egypt taking 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters of 84 billion cubic meters, with 10 billion lost to evaporation.
That agreement, first signed in 1929, took no account of the eight other nations along the 6,700-kilometer (4,160-mile) river and its basin, which have been agitating for a decade for a more equitable accord.
Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy Alemayehu Tegenu has said Egypt should not worry about a diminished water share.
"We don't have any irrigation projects around the dam. The dam is solely intended for electricity production ... So there should not be any concerns about a diminished water flow," Alemayehu told The Associated Press on Saturday.
The conclusion of the 8th meeting of Russia-Pakistan Consultative Group on Strategic Stability, held in Islamabad in April 20131, marks the culmination of a series of high profile engagements between the two countries. In the last one and a half years alone, the two sides have witnessed a flurry of high profile bilateral visits that has included Russia’s Chief of Ground Forces, Chief of Air Force, Special Envoy to Afghanistan and the Foreign Minister visiting Islamabad. Similarly, from the Pakistani side, Air Force Chief Tahir Rafique Butt, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and Chief of Army Gen. Kayani have all visited Moscow.
For Russia, which has a ‘privileged’ and ‘special’ relationship with India, the increased engagement does raise a few questions. First, what are the driving factors behind Russia current engagement strategy with Pakistan? Second, what are the prospects of this new growing equation? And third, should India be concerned?
Developments in Afghanistan are a key objective of Russia’s increased engagement with Pakistan. There exists tremendous uncertainty in the event of a post-2014 withdrawal of US and NATO troops. The fact that there will be a new government in Kabul coupled with Hamid Karzai’s political overtures to Taliban has raised the spectre of uncertainty ahead. Emergence of a power vacuum and a protracted civil war is a distinct possibility. There also exists serious apprehensions about the capabilities of Afghan armed forces in tackling crime while opium production and drug trafficking continues to go on unabated.3 Russia has been concerned of any turmoil spreading to its ‘near abroad’. More importantly, terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan has the potential of inspiring radical Islamists and flaming violence in Russia’s own restive northern Caucasian territories. There is a growing realization that Pakistan holds one of the key levers of bringing stability to the region and it will thus be unwise to ignore it.4 With a new government in power in Islamabad, it becomes imperative to open new lines of communication. Therefore, Russia’s cautious yet steady engagement with Pakistan can be seen in the context of finding a common ground on issues which have ramifications for the whole Eurasian region.
So concerned is Russia about the evolving Afghan situation that President Putin has declared it to be a ‘matter of direct concern for our national security’.5 Russia’s Afghan policy had drawn President Karzai to visit Moscow in 2011, which was seen as a watershed event. The two countries have a technical-military agreement and Russia has continued to train and provide weapons to Afghan civilian, military and police specialists, apart from upgrading Soviet era infrastructure.6 It has also rendered an alternative supply route (Northern Distribution Network) to NATO forces while President Putin has time and again called for greater coordination between CSTO and NATO. He also signed on the law which will extend Russia’s military base in Tajikistan. This will see Russia’s 201st division continue with its deployment on the Tajik border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan shares an approximately 1,300 kilometre long border with the war ravaged country. Read the full story at www.ecived.com/en!
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